Review and comparison of the impact of ARS epidemic on steel industry

The SARS outbreak in 2003 had little impact on the steel industry, and the current macroeconomic and steel industry environment is quite different from that in 2003. The SARS and COVID 19 outbreaks may have different impacts on the steel industry

In 2003, the domestic macro economy was in a stage of rapid development, with the GDP (unchanged price) increasing by 10% year on year, and the investment in fixed assets increasing by 28.40% year on year. The good macroeconomic situation and the rapid growth of infrastructure construction led to strong domestic steel demand, the steel market throughout the year showed a "volume increase in price" situation. From January to April 2003, the prices of major steel products in China increased month by month, and the prices of major steel products increased by more than 10% year on year. From may to September, the domestic steel entered the adjustment stage, but the cold and hot sheet only in May and June saw a significant decline, the construction steel and hot rolled plate prices in the second quarter and third quarter overall still show a rising trend, and the price of major steel is still higher than the same period of last year and the beginning of the year; After October, by the demand side and the cost side of the impact, the steel prices once again show a substantial rise. Overall, affected by the rapid growth of the macro economy, the SARS outbreak in 2003 had little impact on the steel industry.

In 2019, the gross domestic product (unchanged price) grew by 6.10% year on year, and the completed amount of fixed asset investment grew by 5.40% year on year. After the steel industry experienced overcapacity and supply-side reform, the overall operation of the steel industry remained stable. The steel price index at the end of 2019 was 106.10, little changed from 106.23 at the beginning of the year, but still significantly down from the peak of 122.98 in 2018. Overall, the current steel supply than 2003 relatively loose, steel prices are stable in the fall.